{"id":4262,"date":"2007-03-27T15:50:53","date_gmt":"2007-03-27T15:50:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/03\/27\/dmographie-la-q\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T09:53:31","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T09:53:31","slug":"dmographie-la-q","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/03\/27\/dmographie-la-q\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00e9mographie : la question de base."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/population_mondiale1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"114\"  src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/population_mondiale.png\" alt=\"Population_mondiale\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px;float: left\" \/><\/a> La <a href=\"http:\/\/samuel.benoit.online.fr\/dossiers\/sources-energie\/energies-fossiles\/index.php\">consommation d&rsquo;\u00e9nergie fossile<\/a> est la cons\u00e9quence du nombre d&rsquo;homme.Le &quot;plan de charge &quot; d\u00e9mographique de la plan\u00e9te est fonci\u00e9rement diff\u00e9rent suivant le type de consommation. 20 milliards d&rsquo;habitants possibles s&rsquo;ils vivent comme des bengladais, 2 milliards, s&rsquo;ils sont au maximum de consommation constat\u00e9. Mais tout homme sur terre consomme de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie, m\u00eame si cela est peu. Raison pour lesquel il est important de savoir, combien il y a d&rsquo;hommes sur terre, et combien ils seront en 2025 et 2050.<br \/>L&rsquo;onu, sur cette question, et depuis longtemps, divague totalement. En effet une alerte \u00e0 l&rsquo;explosion d\u00e9mographique eut lieu \u00e0 la fin des ann\u00e9es 1950. Et on entend r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement le m\u00eame message : explosion, explosion, explosion. Rien n&rsquo;est plus faux. Si les pays du 1\/3 monde ont connus une expansion<\/p>\n<p>d\u00e9mographique importante, leur freinage d\u00e9mographique est aussi une donn\u00e9e importante. Il a commenc\u00e9 il y a longtemps d\u00e9j\u00e0 : au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1970. Le tiers monde a aval\u00e9 en acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 le progr\u00e9s technique pour la r\u00e9duction de la mortalit\u00e9, puis pour la r\u00e9duction de la natalit\u00e9. Mais l&rsquo;onu, comme tout pr\u00e9visionniste qui s&rsquo;est tromp\u00e9, ne veut pas le reconnaitre (des fourchettes de 600 milliards \u00e0 5 milliards pour 2100 avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 fournies). Pourtant, sans bruit, et sans changer le discours, les projections \u00e0 2025 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 baiss\u00e9es depuis 1973, de 100 millions par ann\u00e9es (ce qui est consid\u00e9rable). <br \/>Mais cela ne va plus non plus.<br \/>Alors depuis le tournant 2000, l&rsquo;Onu visiblement tripatouille les chiffres. Les prises de bec, notamment avec le gouvernement indien sont fr\u00e9quentes, l&rsquo;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.linternaute.com\/science\/science-et-nous\/dossiers\/06\/demographie\/4.shtml\">indice de f\u00e9condit\u00e9<\/a> Onu, est scotch\u00e9 en Inde \u00e0 3,1, alors que le gouvernement indien, lui, pr\u00e9tend qu&rsquo;il est descendu \u00e0 2&#8230;<br \/>Pr\u00e9tention \u00e0 l&rsquo;infaillibilit\u00e9 Onusienne ? Ou plut\u00f4t, refus d&rsquo;avouer une erreur de plus en plus \u00e9vidente ? Les pr\u00e9visions ont, de plus aussi retenu \u00e0 un chiffre moyen de deux enfants par femme. Chiffre jamais constat\u00e9, car sur plus de 60 % des pays de la plan\u00e9te, c&rsquo;est en dessous, voire tr\u00e9s en dessous.<br \/>Toujours est il que ce doute, sur la prospective, est d&rsquo;autant plus fort, qu&rsquo;un certain nombre de pays lors des ann\u00e9es 1990, ont connus de v\u00e9ritables implosions : le plus fr\u00e9quemment cit\u00e9 est la Russie, mais l&rsquo; Alg\u00e9rie par exemple connait un alignement d\u00e9mographique important et rapide. Ceci \u00e9tant dit, on peut aborder encore plus r\u00e9jouissant, les prospectives \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques 2025-2050. Notamment, celle des compagnies p\u00e9troli\u00e8res, d&rsquo;il y a quelques ann\u00e9es. De 9 milliards de tep\/an \u00e0 18. Premi\u00e8re constatation, c&rsquo;est qu&rsquo;il serait difficile de n&rsquo;\u00eatre pas mort asphyxi\u00e9&nbsp; \u00e0 cette date avec une telle consommation. La deuxi\u00e8me est que 9 milliards de tep, c&rsquo;est consid\u00e9rable. Sont exploit\u00e9es, toutes \u00e9nergies confondues, d&rsquo;abord les plus accessibles&#8230; Enfin, il faut noter, ici, les difficult\u00e9s de la<a href=\"http:\/\/www.industrie.gouv.fr\/energie\/prospect\/textes\/se_scena.htm\"> prospective<\/a> \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Comment pr\u00e9voir la consommation d&rsquo;\u00e9nergie, alors qu&rsquo;on ne sait rien des hommes qui la consommeront&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La consommation d&rsquo;\u00e9nergie fossile est la cons\u00e9quence du nombre d&rsquo;homme.Le &quot;plan de charge &quot; d\u00e9mographique de la plan\u00e9te est fonci\u00e9rement diff\u00e9rent suivant le type de consommation. 20 milliards d&rsquo;habitants possibles s&rsquo;ils vivent comme des bengladais, 2 milliards, s&rsquo;ils sont au maximum de consommation constat\u00e9. Mais tout homme sur terre consomme de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie, m\u00eame si cela [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":5246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1969],"class_list":["post-4262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","tag-consommation-energie-fossile-prospective-energetique"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>D\u00e9mographie : la question de base. - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/03\/27\/dmographie-la-q\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"D\u00e9mographie : la question de base. - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"La consommation d&rsquo;\u00e9nergie fossile est la cons\u00e9quence du nombre d&rsquo;homme.Le &quot;plan de charge &quot; d\u00e9mographique de la plan\u00e9te est fonci\u00e9rement diff\u00e9rent suivant le type de consommation. 20 milliards d&rsquo;habitants possibles s&rsquo;ils vivent comme des bengladais, 2 milliards, s&rsquo;ils sont au maximum de consommation constat\u00e9. 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