{"id":433,"date":"2010-03-15T14:26:52","date_gmt":"2010-03-15T14:26:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/03\/15\/un-exercice-de-haute-ecole-prevoir-lactivite-des-industries-du-photovoltaique\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:11:58","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:11:58","slug":"un-exercice-de-haute-ecole-prevoir-lactivite-des-industries-du-photovoltaique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/03\/15\/un-exercice-de-haute-ecole-prevoir-lactivite-des-industries-du-photovoltaique\/","title":{"rendered":"Un exercice de haute \u00e9cole: pr\u00e9voir l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 des industries du photovolta\u00efque"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;Apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9bandade des autorit\u00e9s espagnoles en 2008 qui, effray\u00e9es par la croissance incontr\u00f4l\u00e9e de la facture, avaient subitement stopp\u00e9 toutes les autorisations d&#039;implantation de modules solaires sur le territoire, de tristes pr\u00e9visions d&#039;activit\u00e9s avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9es pour l&#039;exercice 2009. i-Suppli au mois d&#039;Avril avait pr\u00e9vu un march\u00e9 2009 de 3,5GW (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.isuppli.com\/News\/Pages\/Will-Solar-Downturn-Lead-to-a-More-Mature-Photovoltaic-Industry.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"i-Suppli\">LIRE<\/a>) qui devait succ\u00e9der au march\u00e9 2008 de 6 GW. Nomura Securities pronostiquait \u00e9galement des volumes commercialis\u00e9s en baisse pour 2009 (FIG.) autour des 5 GW.<\/p>\n<p>&#160;<a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a93a967a970b-popup\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Nomura-2002-2011-2009\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20120a93a967a970b \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a93a967a970b-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a>Rares \u00e9taient ceux qui pr\u00e9voyaient un march\u00e9 en croissance. Seul peut-\u00eatre, Gartner, \u00e0 partir d&#039;une base erron\u00e9e, pr\u00e9voyait une croissance en volumes de 24%, pour atteindre 6,4GW en 2009 avec une stagnation du chiffre d&#039;affaires mondial. (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.edn.com\/article\/CA6644419.html\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Gartner\">LIRE<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a93aa7e7970b-pi\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"PV-market-2009\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20120a93aa7e7970b \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a93aa7e7970b-450wi.gif\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&#160;Le r\u00e9sultat qui vient d&#039;\u00eatre publi\u00e9 par Solarbuzz (FIG.II) indique qu&#039;entre 2008 et 2009 le march\u00e9 mondial des modules photovolta\u00efques s&#039;est accru de 6% pour atteindre 6,43GW. Ce march\u00e9 dop\u00e9 par la demande germanique en fin d&#039;ann\u00e9e voulant profiter des tarifs avantageux encore en vigueur, par une demande italienne soutenue, par une croissance japonaise subventionn\u00e9e et par une bonne activit\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine, a finalement fait beaucoup mieux que pr\u00e9vu par la plupart des analystes de ce march\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>&#160;Dans ce march\u00e9 domin\u00e9 \u00e0 74% par les pays europ\u00e9ens et leurs aides tarifaires, il est \u00e9vident que de vouloir avancer tout pronostic sur les activit\u00e9s \u00e0 venir rel\u00e8ve du doigt mouill\u00e9. Pour l&#039;instant tout le monde annonce un march\u00e9 en croissance soutenue, mais seuls les consommateurs qui paient l&#039;\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 au prix fort, pourraient un jour ne plus \u00eatre d&#039;accord. L&#039;enthousiasme \u00e9cologique mercantile pourrait se heurter au mur des r\u00e9alit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.solarbuzz.com\/Marketbuzz2010-intro.htm\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Solarbuzz\">LIRE<\/a> le r\u00e9sum\u00e9 du papier de Solarbuzz<\/p>\n<p>Le 15 Mars 2010<\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;Apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9bandade des autorit\u00e9s espagnoles en 2008 qui, effray\u00e9es par la croissance incontr\u00f4l\u00e9e de la facture, avaient subitement stopp\u00e9 toutes les autorisations d&#039;implantation de modules solaires sur le territoire, de tristes pr\u00e9visions d&#039;activit\u00e9s avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9es pour l&#039;exercice 2009. i-Suppli au mois d&#039;Avril avait pr\u00e9vu un march\u00e9 2009 de 3,5GW (LIRE) qui devait succ\u00e9der [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":21829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solaire"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - 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