{"id":435,"date":"2010-03-12T17:33:33","date_gmt":"2010-03-12T17:33:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/03\/12\/les-agences-revoient-a-la-hausse-les-previsions-daccroissement-de-consommation-de-petrole-en-2010\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:11:43","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:11:43","slug":"les-agences-revoient-a-la-hausse-les-previsions-daccroissement-de-consommation-de-petrole-en-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/03\/12\/les-agences-revoient-a-la-hausse-les-previsions-daccroissement-de-consommation-de-petrole-en-2010\/","title":{"rendered":"Les Agences revoient \u00e0 la hausse les pr\u00e9visions d&rsquo;accroissement de consommation de p\u00e9trole en 2010"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;Les Agences de suivi et de pr\u00e9vision des consommations de p\u00e9trole se trompent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement et parfois lourdement dans leurs pronostics. Cela ne les emp\u00eache par de pers\u00e9v\u00e9rer et de revoir tous les mois leurs chiffres \u00e0 la hausse ou \u00e0 la baisse. Elles r\u00e9visent encore par exemple leurs &quot;pr\u00e9visions&quot; de consommations pour 2009 et \u00e9mettent des hypoth\u00e8ses sur les variations des consommations entre 2009 et 2010. Il est donc int\u00e9ressant d&#039;examiner tous les mois o\u00f9 en sont leurs pr\u00e9visions, bien qu&#039;elles aient de moins en moins d&#039;impact sur l&#039;\u00e9tablissement des cours des produits p\u00e9troliers. Au mois de Mars, c&#039;est l&#039;Energy Information Administration (EIA) qui a le plus chamboul\u00e9 ses pr\u00e9visions avec un accroissement de 270 mille barils par jour sur la variation 2010\/2009 des consommations qui devraient atteindre 1,47 millions de barils\/jour (FIG., courbe rouge). L&#039;EIA justifie de nouvelles pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 la hausse pour la Chine et le Moyen-Orient sur la base de fortes progressions des PIB, sorte de m\u00e9thode globale assez empirique. Ces pr\u00e9visions ont tr\u00e8s peu impressionn\u00e9 le march\u00e9 qui se pose des questions sur la validit\u00e9 des consommations chinoises qui semblent assez floues. Il semblerait, d&#039;apr\u00e8s PetroMatrix que le raffinage chinois \u00e9tant exc\u00e9dentaire, une partie des produits soient mis en stock ou export\u00e9s apr\u00e8s traitement, ce qui ferait de la Chine un exportateur net de produits raffin\u00e9s. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e201310f93516e970c-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Previsions-p\u00e9trole-2010\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e201310f93516e970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e201310f93516e970c-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>L&#039;Agence Internationale de l&#039;Energie (IEA), toujours en pointe, \u00e0 revu sa pr\u00e9vision 2010\/2009 bien que d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9lev\u00e9e, \u00e0 la hausse pour la porter \u00e0 1,6 million de barils\/jour (courbe bleue). Mais plus personne ne se pr\u00e9occupe r\u00e9ellement de ses publications. <\/p>\n<p>Paradoxalement, la plus comment\u00e9e et prise au s\u00e9rieux a \u00e9t\u00e9 la nouvelle pr\u00e9vision de l&#039;OPEC qui a revu l&#039;accroissement de consommation de p\u00e9trole mondial entre 2009 et 2010 en hausse de 80 mille barils\/jour \u00e0 0,88 million (courbe verte).&#160;<\/p>\n<p>Le choix est large, il va quasiment du simple au double et chacun peut choisir son meilleur pronostic. Personnellement j&#039;ai plus tendance \u00e0 croire en la courbe verte autour de 800 mille barils\/jour.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span>Remarque<\/span><\/strong>: ces pr\u00e9visions mondiales de consommations&#160;pour 2010 qui sont au mois de Mars de 85.24 (OPEC), 85.51 (EIA) et 86 (IEA) millions de barils\/jour, englobent le p\u00e9trole brut, les gaz comprim\u00e9s liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9s et les biocarburants. Les variations 2010\/2009 repr\u00e9sentent celles de la demande finale. Pour avoir la variation de la demande en p\u00e9trole il faut int\u00e9grer une hypoth\u00e8se de variation des usages de biocarburants. Entre Janvier 2009 et Janvier 2010 la production mondiale de biocarburants est pass\u00e9e de 1,68 \u00e0 1,93 millions de barils\/jour. En supposant cet accroissement constant tout au long de 2010 il faut donc soustraire 0,25 million de barils aux chiffres indiqu\u00e9s pour avoir la pression exerc\u00e9e sur la ressource p\u00e9troli\u00e8re.<\/p>\n<p>Le 12 Mars 2010<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;Les Agences de suivi et de pr\u00e9vision des consommations de p\u00e9trole se trompent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement et parfois lourdement dans leurs pronostics. Cela ne les emp\u00eache par de pers\u00e9v\u00e9rer et de revoir tous les mois leurs chiffres \u00e0 la hausse ou \u00e0 la baisse. Elles r\u00e9visent encore par exemple leurs &quot;pr\u00e9visions&quot; de consommations pour 2009 et \u00e9mettent [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":21817,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les Agences revoient \u00e0 la hausse les pr\u00e9visions d&#039;accroissement de consommation de p\u00e9trole en 2010 - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/03\/12\/les-agences-revoient-a-la-hausse-les-previsions-daccroissement-de-consommation-de-petrole-en-2010\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les Agences revoient \u00e0 la hausse les pr\u00e9visions d&#039;accroissement de consommation de p\u00e9trole en 2010 - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&#160;Les Agences de suivi et de pr\u00e9vision des consommations de p\u00e9trole se trompent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement et parfois lourdement dans leurs pronostics. 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