{"id":4389,"date":"2007-02-19T17:09:35","date_gmt":"2007-02-19T17:09:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/02\/19\/pic-oil-le-moye\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T09:50:27","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T09:50:27","slug":"pic-oil-le-moye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/02\/19\/pic-oil-le-moye\/","title":{"rendered":"Pic oil : le moyen orient aussi."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/ghawar1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"291\"  alt=\"Ghawar\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/ghawar.jpg\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px;float: left\" \/><\/a>Dans les statistiques pour 2020, le moyen orient est sens\u00e9 prendre le relais des autres gisements declinants. Dans ce cas de figure, l&rsquo;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sesrtcic.org\/french\/members\/sar\/sarhome.shtml\">Arabie saoudite<\/a> fait figure de poids lourd incontournable, de reserves ultimes.<br \/>Or ce r\u00e9servoir, s&rsquo;il est et reste impressionnant pose quand meme certaines inqui\u00e9tude lourde.<br \/>Ses r\u00e9serves sont estim\u00e9es \u00e0 267 Gbarils. Ce chiffre est d\u00e9j\u00e0 contest\u00e9, il n&rsquo;y a pas d&rsquo;harmonisation des m\u00e9thodes de comptage, et les r\u00e9serves sont des secrets d&rsquo;\u00e9tat.<br \/>M\u00eame en partant sur ce chiffre, il n&rsquo;apparait gu\u00e9re possible d&rsquo;exploiter plus de la moiti\u00e9 d&rsquo;un gisement. Les r\u00e9serves exploitables tombent dont \u00e0 134 Gb, et le pic oil survient \u00e0 la moiti\u00e9 de ce chiffre soit 67 Gb. Ce chiffre est \u00e0 comparer au montant d\u00e9j\u00e0 extrait (55Gb),<br \/>On voit donc que si une marge existe encore, elle n&rsquo;est plus tr\u00e9s \u00e9lev\u00e9e, et qu&rsquo;elle est surtout due \u00e0 la politique des princes saoudiens qui ont, par le pass\u00e9 d\u00e9j\u00e0 <\/p>\n<p>beaucoup r\u00e9duit leur production pour \u00e9viter l&rsquo;effondrement des prix du p\u00e9trole (notamment dans les ann\u00e9es 1980). Cela a eu pour effet d&rsquo;\u00e9conomiser ces r\u00e9serves. Mais n&rsquo;importe qui verra que, s&rsquo;il est possible \u00e0 l&rsquo;Arabie de &quot;faire durer&quot; ces r\u00e9serves consid\u00e9rables, il est beaucoup plus illusoire de leur demander d&rsquo;accroitre significativement leur production dans les proportions escompt\u00e9es (de <a href=\"http:\/\/www.linternaute.com\/savoir\/petrole\/production.shtml\">9 millions de barils jours \u00e0 20 millions en 2020)<\/a>. Cet effort apparait comme impossible.<br \/>Pire encore, le bruit circule que le gisement g\u00e9ant de<a href=\"http:\/\/www.newcolonist.com\/ghawar.html\"> Ghawar<\/a> (60% de la production) aurait commenc\u00e9 son d\u00e9clin.<br \/>De plus, il faut se mefier des r\u00e9serves estim\u00e9es. Elles sont en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral SURESTIMEES. Il faudrait que cette surestimation soit minime pour que la production saoudienne ne d\u00e9cline pas rapidement.<br \/>Explication : partons \u00e0 l&rsquo;envers 55 Gb d\u00e9j\u00e0 exploit\u00e9s, X 2 (date du pic-oil) soit 110 GB X 2 (part non r\u00e9cup\u00e9rable) soit 220 Gb. A comparer aux 267 Gb de reserves officielles. la marge de manoeuvre n&rsquo;est donc que de 47 Gb&#8230; Quelques ann\u00e9es au rythme actuel&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Continuez \u00e0 dormir, braves gens.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans les statistiques pour 2020, le moyen orient est sens\u00e9 prendre le relais des autres gisements declinants. Dans ce cas de figure, l&rsquo;Arabie saoudite fait figure de poids lourd incontournable, de reserves ultimes.Or ce r\u00e9servoir, s&rsquo;il est et reste impressionnant pose quand meme certaines inqui\u00e9tude lourde.Ses r\u00e9serves sont estim\u00e9es \u00e0 267 Gbarils. Ce chiffre est [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":4994,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[2081],"class_list":["post-4389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-ghawar-arabie-saoudite-pic-oil"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Pic oil : le moyen orient aussi. - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/02\/19\/pic-oil-le-moye\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Pic oil : le moyen orient aussi. - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Dans les statistiques pour 2020, le moyen orient est sens\u00e9 prendre le relais des autres gisements declinants. Dans ce cas de figure, l&rsquo;Arabie saoudite fait figure de poids lourd incontournable, de reserves ultimes.Or ce r\u00e9servoir, s&rsquo;il est et reste impressionnant pose quand meme certaines inqui\u00e9tude lourde.Ses r\u00e9serves sont estim\u00e9es \u00e0 267 Gbarils. 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