{"id":519,"date":"2010-01-13T13:48:19","date_gmt":"2010-01-13T13:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/01\/13\/les-previsions-de-leia-de-consommations-mondiales-de-carburants-pour-2011-nintegrent-aucune-contrain\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:05:47","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:05:47","slug":"les-previsions-de-leia-de-consommations-mondiales-de-carburants-pour-2011-nintegrent-aucune-contrain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/01\/13\/les-previsions-de-leia-de-consommations-mondiales-de-carburants-pour-2011-nintegrent-aucune-contrain\/","title":{"rendered":"Les pr\u00e9visions de l&rsquo;EIA de consommations mondiales de carburants pour 2011 n&rsquo;int\u00e8grent aucune contrainte climatique"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La lecture des pr\u00e9visions de consommations mondiales de &quot;liquid fuels&quot; publi\u00e9es par l&#039;Energy Information Administration am\u00e9ricaine dans son Short-Term Energy Outlook du mois de Janvier, am\u00e8ne \u00e0 avancer certains commentaires. Pour cette Administration la reprise \u00e9conomique mondiale en 2010 et 2011 ne fait aucun doute, elle pr\u00e9voit donc une gaillarde croissance des consommations de carburants liquides de 1,08 millions de barils\/jour entre 2009 et 2010, ainsi qu&#039;une croissance encore plus marqu\u00e9e de 1,47 millions de barils\/jour entre 2010 et 2011 (FIG.). Des croissances respectives de 1,3% et 1,7% des consommations de liquides accompagnent des croissances du PIB mondial de 2,5% en 2010 et de 3,7% en 2011.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e2012876cfa0ba970c-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"EIA-2008-2011-2010-01\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e2012876cfa0ba970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e2012876cfa0ba970c-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e2012876cf5512970c-pi\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>En particulier dans ces pr\u00e9visions aucune contrainte climatique n&#039;est \u00e9voqu\u00e9e. A une croissance de l&#039;\u00e9conomie doit correspondre in\u00e9luctablement une croissance de la consommation d&#039;\u00e9nergie fossile. Pour apporter \u00e0 ces pr\u00e9visions quelques nuances je pense qu&#039;il est <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">au moins<\/span> n\u00e9cessaire de les corriger de la contribution des biocarburants \u00e0 la demande mondiale. En 2009 les productions mondiales de biocarburants peuvent \u00eatre estim\u00e9es \u00e0 1,56 millions de barils\/jour dont 0,3 millions de biodiesel. Pour 2010 il est possible de pr\u00e9voir une forte croissance des volumes de biodiesel \u00e0 0,36 millions de barils\/jour, une faible production d&#039;\u00e9thanol au Br\u00e9sil, en raison d&#039;une faible r\u00e9colte de cane \u00e0 sucre (0,45 mbl\/j), mais de fortes croissances de production d&#039;\u00e9thanol aux Etats-Unis (&gt;0,79 mbl\/j) avec l&#039;adoption du carburant E15 et dans le reste du monde avec l&#039;arriv\u00e9e des pays en voie de d\u00e9veloppement sur ce march\u00e9 agricole peu complexe. L&#039;ensemble de ces donn\u00e9es permet de tabler, de fa\u00e7on prudente, sur des volumes de biocarburants de <strong><span>1,75 mbl\/j en 2010 et de 2 mbl\/j en 2011<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Les consommations mondiales de p\u00e9troles vues par l&#039;EIA et corrig\u00e9es de l&#039;apport des biocarburants (FIG., courbe rouge) apparaissent alors plus mesur\u00e9es et devraient ainsi demeurer en dessous des 85 millions de barils\/jour d&#039;ici \u00e0 deux ans.<\/p>\n<p>Bien s\u00fbr les reprises de l&#039;information de l&#039;EIA dans la presse et les blogs amalgameront la nouvelle \u00e0 de pures croissances de consommations de p\u00e9trole. Si cette Administration voulait faire monter les cours du brut et soutenir ainsi la sp\u00e9culation, elle ne s&#039;y prendrait pas autrement.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.doe.gov\/emeu\/steo\/pub\/contents.html\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"EIA\">CONSULTER<\/a> les infos du Short-Term Energy Outlook de l&#039;EIA<\/p>\n<p>Le 13 Janvier 2010<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La lecture des pr\u00e9visions de consommations mondiales de &quot;liquid fuels&quot; publi\u00e9es par l&#039;Energy Information Administration am\u00e9ricaine dans son Short-Term Energy Outlook du mois de Janvier, am\u00e8ne \u00e0 avancer certains commentaires. Pour cette Administration la reprise \u00e9conomique mondiale en 2010 et 2011 ne fait aucun doute, elle pr\u00e9voit donc une gaillarde croissance des consommations de carburants [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":21539,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[82],"class_list":["post-519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile","tag-eia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les pr\u00e9visions de l&#039;EIA de consommations mondiales de carburants pour 2011 n&#039;int\u00e8grent aucune contrainte climatique - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/01\/13\/les-previsions-de-leia-de-consommations-mondiales-de-carburants-pour-2011-nintegrent-aucune-contrain\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les pr\u00e9visions de l&#039;EIA de consommations mondiales de carburants pour 2011 n&#039;int\u00e8grent aucune contrainte climatique - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"La lecture des pr\u00e9visions de consommations mondiales de &quot;liquid fuels&quot; publi\u00e9es par l&#039;Energy Information Administration am\u00e9ricaine dans son Short-Term Energy Outlook du mois de Janvier, am\u00e8ne \u00e0 avancer certains commentaires. Pour cette Administration la reprise \u00e9conomique mondiale en 2010 et 2011 ne fait aucun doute, elle pr\u00e9voit donc une gaillarde croissance des consommations de carburants [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e2012876cfa0ba970c-450wi.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Raymond Bonnaterre\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/01\/13\/les-previsions-de-leia-de-consommations-mondiales-de-carburants-pour-2011-nintegrent-aucune-contrain\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/01\/13\/les-previsions-de-leia-de-consommations-mondiales-de-carburants-pour-2011-nintegrent-aucune-contrain\/\",\"name\":\"Les pr\u00e9visions de l'EIA de consommations mondiales de carburants pour 2011 n'int\u00e8grent aucune contrainte climatique - 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