{"id":550,"date":"2009-12-21T09:09:30","date_gmt":"2009-12-21T09:09:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/12\/21\/fautil-croire-les-previsions-daccroissement-de-consommation-de-petrole-en-2010\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:03:35","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:03:35","slug":"fautil-croire-les-previsions-daccroissement-de-consommation-de-petrole-en-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/12\/21\/fautil-croire-les-previsions-daccroissement-de-consommation-de-petrole-en-2010\/","title":{"rendered":"Faut-il croire les pr\u00e9visions d&rsquo;accroissement de consommation de p\u00e9trole en 2010"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Trois organismes dans le monde publient chaque mois leur meilleure vision de la variation attendue des consommations de p\u00e9trole pour l&#039;ann\u00e9e suivante. G\u00e9n\u00e9ralement c&#039;est l&#039;agence Internationale de l&#039;Energie qui repr\u00e9sente les int\u00e9r\u00eats de l&#039;OCDE qui est la plus &quot;bullish&quot; et qui a dans le pass\u00e9 publi\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions stupides qui ont particip\u00e9 \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation de la bulle de 2008. L&#039;OPEP r\u00e9alise ses propres pronostics \u00e0 partir d&#039;une connaissance de terrain du march\u00e9 et ses pr\u00e9visions sont souvent en retrait par rapport \u00e0 celles des autres Agences. Enfin, le troisi\u00e8me larron qui est l&#039;Energy Information Administration am\u00e9ricaine, publie des pr\u00e9visions qui sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement entre celles des deux premi\u00e8res. Un examen des pr\u00e9visions pour 2010 r\u00e9alis\u00e9es mois apr\u00e8s mois, montre que cette classification est toujours d&#039;actualit\u00e9 (FIG.). Au mois de D\u00e9cembre l&#039;IEA a remont\u00e9 ses pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 1,47 mbl\/j (?), l&#039;EIA les a baiss\u00e9es pour tenir compte de la faible demande dans les pays OCDE \u00e0 1,1 mbl\/j et l&#039;OPEP a conserv\u00e9 les siennes stables \u00e0 0,82 mbl\/j.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20128766fa83e970c-pi.jpg\"><\/a> <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e20128766fbc25970c-pi\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Previsions-p\u00e9trole-2010\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20128766fbc25970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20128766fbc25970c-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>Mais que pensent les grandes maisons de n\u00e9goce du p\u00e9trole mondial comme Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura, Gunvor ou Mercuria qui commercialisent chaque ann\u00e9e 15% du p\u00e9trole mondial. Dans l&#039;ensemble elles envisagent une reprise molle (sluggish) de la demande en p\u00e9trole en 2010. Au mieux certains voient un certain accroissement au cours du deuxi\u00e8me trimestre 2010. Mais dans l&#039;ensemble ces traders ne rejoignent pas les pr\u00e9visions de l&#039;IEA qui les&#160;ont toujours un peu fait sourire.<\/p>\n<p>Tout ceci n&#039;emp\u00eache pas certains analystes de banques comme Frank Shallenberger de la Landesbank de pr\u00e9dire pour 2010 une demande de p\u00e9trole surpassant l&#039;offre d&#039;un million de barils\/jour. Que d&#039;\u00e2neries prononc\u00e9es pour maintenir des cours artificiellement \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>A titre personnel, une pr\u00e9vision d&#039;accroissement de la demande de p\u00e9trole en 2010 comprise entre 0,4 et 0,8 millions de barils par jour me semblerait plus r\u00e9aliste.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/53a425f2-edae-11de-ba12-00144feab49a.html\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"FT\">LIRE<\/a> le papier du Financial Times sur ce sujet.<\/p>\n<p>Le 21 D\u00e9cembre 2009<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trois organismes dans le monde publient chaque mois leur meilleure vision de la variation attendue des consommations de p\u00e9trole pour l&#039;ann\u00e9e suivante. G\u00e9n\u00e9ralement c&#039;est l&#039;agence Internationale de l&#039;Energie qui repr\u00e9sente les int\u00e9r\u00eats de l&#039;OCDE qui est la plus &quot;bullish&quot; et qui a dans le pass\u00e9 publi\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions stupides qui ont particip\u00e9 \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":21430,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[143,82,141,142],"class_list":["post-550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-2010-oil-demand","tag-eia","tag-iea","tag-opec"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Faut-il croire les pr\u00e9visions d&#039;accroissement de consommation de p\u00e9trole en 2010 - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/12\/21\/fautil-croire-les-previsions-daccroissement-de-consommation-de-petrole-en-2010\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Faut-il croire les pr\u00e9visions d&#039;accroissement de consommation de p\u00e9trole en 2010 - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Trois organismes dans le monde publient chaque mois leur meilleure vision de la variation attendue des consommations de p\u00e9trole pour l&#039;ann\u00e9e suivante. 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