{"id":557,"date":"2009-12-17T15:07:11","date_gmt":"2009-12-17T15:07:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/12\/17\/la-dette-publique-de-la-france-pourrait-flirter-avec-les-1600-milliards-deuros-a-la-fin-de-lannee\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:03:20","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:03:20","slug":"la-dette-publique-de-la-france-pourrait-flirter-avec-les-1600-milliards-deuros-a-la-fin-de-lannee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/12\/17\/la-dette-publique-de-la-france-pourrait-flirter-avec-les-1600-milliards-deuros-a-la-fin-de-lannee\/","title":{"rendered":"La dette publique de la France pourrait flirter avec les 1600 milliards d&rsquo;euros \u00e0 la fin de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les m\u00eames causes conduisant aux m\u00eames effets, la gestion de l&#039;endettement de la France ne connaissant essentiellement que des actions tendant \u00e0 l&#039;accro\u00eetre, comme c&#039;est le cas de la baisse de TVA dans la restauration (r\u00e9forme structurelle) ou plus r\u00e9cemment de&#160;l&#039;emprunt occasionnel destin\u00e9 \u00e0 restaurer le standing de nos Universit\u00e9s, il est probable que la tendance \u00e0 l&#039;aggravation observ\u00e9e durant les trimestres pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents est extrapolable aux deux derniers trimestres 2009. Sans grand risque de commettre un grave contresens, il est possible par une loi quadratique simple, de pr\u00e9voir que la dette publique de la France devrait se balader autour des 1600 milliards d&#039;euros \u00e0 la fin de l&#039;ann\u00e9e (FIG.), c&#039;est \u00e0 dire dans quinze jours. &#160;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20128765f385a970c-pi.jpg\"><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e20128765f56e4970c-pi\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Dette-publique-2009-T2\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20128765f56e4970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20128765f56e4970c-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a> <br \/>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>Tout cela n&#039;est pas tr\u00e8s grave nous assure notre ami Lucas, puisqu&#039;il y a derri\u00e8re la caution du bas de laine des Fran\u00e7ais qui, on le sait, est copieusement rempli&#8230; en moyenne. Finalement l&#039;Etat s&#039;endetterait \u00e0 notre place&#8230;il nous rendrait service et nous dispenserait d&#039;aller qu\u00e9mander de l&#039;aide chez notre banquier aux dents ac\u00e9r\u00e9es. C&#039;est le mod\u00e8le fran\u00e7ais classique dans lequel l&#039;Etat s&#039;occupe de tout&#8230; ou presque.&#160;<\/p>\n<p>Il est possible qualitativement de se trouver satisfait d&#039;un tel raisonnement, mais l\u00e0 o\u00f9 le b\u00e2t blesse c&#039;est lorsqu&#039;on essaie de quantifier la&#160;progession annualis\u00e9e de cet endettement. A mi-2009 il repr\u00e9sentait 1428 milliards d&#039;euros, soit une croissance de 160 milliards d&#039;euros par rapport \u00e0 mi-2008. Cette variation, sur douze mois, repr\u00e9sente 6000 euros par foyer fran\u00e7ais. Si l&#039;extrapolation vers les 1600 milliards se r\u00e9alise \u00e0 fin 2009, cet endettement repr\u00e9sentera une aggravation autour des 280 milliards d&#039;euros en douze mois, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">soit 10000 \u00e0 11000 euros par foyer<\/span>. <\/p>\n<p>On le voit, ce rythme de croissance est insoutenable, il ne pourra probablement pas tenir jusqu&#039;\u00e0 la prochaine \u00e9ch\u00e9ance \u00e9lectorale pr\u00e9sidentielle&#8230;sauf si, miraculeusement, une vigoureuse reprise \u00e9conomique prenait son essor dans notre pays. Mais doit-on, en politique, croire aux miracles?<\/p>\n<p>Le 17 D\u00e9cembre 2009<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les m\u00eames causes conduisant aux m\u00eames effets, la gestion de l&#039;endettement de la France ne connaissant essentiellement que des actions tendant \u00e0 l&#039;accro\u00eetre, comme c&#039;est le cas de la baisse de TVA dans la restauration (r\u00e9forme structurelle) ou plus r\u00e9cemment de&#160;l&#039;emprunt occasionnel destin\u00e9 \u00e0 restaurer le standing de nos Universit\u00e9s, il est probable que la [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":21411,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[154,27],"class_list":["post-557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","tag-dette-publique","tag-france"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - 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