{"id":598,"date":"2009-11-20T10:52:36","date_gmt":"2009-11-20T10:52:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/11\/20\/les-cours-du-petrole-hesitent-entre-le-casino-et-la-dure-realite-dun-marche-en-repli\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:00:23","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:00:23","slug":"les-cours-du-petrole-hesitent-entre-le-casino-et-la-dure-realite-dun-marche-en-repli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/11\/20\/les-cours-du-petrole-hesitent-entre-le-casino-et-la-dure-realite-dun-marche-en-repli\/","title":{"rendered":"Les cours du p\u00e9trole h\u00e9sitent entre le casino et la dure r\u00e9alit\u00e9 d&rsquo;un march\u00e9 en repli"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D&#039;un c\u00f4t\u00e9 vous avez le p\u00e9trole papier grand support du Carry Trade, sport sp\u00e9culatif qui consiste \u00e0 emprunter du dollar \u00e0 la FED \u00e0 0% d&#039;int\u00e9r\u00eat et, avec l&#039;aide de ce cash, \u00e0 jouer au casino de la valorisation de tout autre actif, mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re, p\u00e9trole ou d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, actions diverses, autres monnaies, etc. Chaque fois que Ben Bernanke annonce, tout comme le faisait son pr\u00e9d\u00e9cesseur magicien d\u00e9chu, qu&#039;il n&#039;est pas venu le temps de la remont\u00e9e des taux administr\u00e9s, c&#039;est une bouff\u00e9e d&#039;oxyg\u00e8ne qui se r\u00e9pand sur les march\u00e9s. On a ainsi vu en d\u00e9but de semaine le WTI remonter vers les 80$ le baril.<\/p>\n<p>&#160;Mais l&#039;autre c\u00f4t\u00e9 est la dure r\u00e9alit\u00e9 quotidienne du march\u00e9 physique. Les raffineries am\u00e9ricaines et s\u00fbrement europ\u00e9ennes, entour\u00e9es de stocks pl\u00e9thoriques, ont de plus en plus de mal \u00e0 trouver des d\u00e9bouch\u00e9s pour leurs produits raffin\u00e9s. Le march\u00e9 lentement mais s\u00fbrement se r\u00e9tr\u00e9cit sous l&#039;impact des mesures d&#039;\u00e9conomies d&#039;\u00e9nergies des entreprises et des particuliers. La mont\u00e9e des biocarburants et la recherche tous azimuts de l&#039;efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique produisent des r\u00e9sultats qui, \u00e0 la longue, impactent les march\u00e9s. Baisse naturelle d&#039;un gaspillage indescriptible qui a vu son apog\u00e9e dans les ann\u00e9es 2005. Un indicateur est l\u00e0 pour montrer la duret\u00e9 du probl\u00e8me, c&#039;est le taux d&#039;utilisation des raffineries am\u00e9ricaines (FIG.). Alors qu&#039;il se baladait autour des 90% dans les ann\u00e9es d&#039;insouciance, le voila qui vient de passer en dessous des 80%.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a6ba2884970b-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Raffinage-US-taux-2006-2009\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20120a6ba2884970b \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a6ba2884970b-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>Il va falloir fermer des raffineries, les moins performantes, aussi bien aux Etats-Unis qu&#039;en Europe. Mais comme le dit de Margerie, la patron de Total, personne ne veut commencer le premier, de peur d&#039;avantager les autres.<\/p>\n<p>A moyen terme, la reprise des productions en friches irakiennes va peser lourdement sur la possibilit\u00e9 de r\u00e9gulation des volumes par l&#039;OPEP. L&#039;int\u00e9gration vers l&#039;aval de gros acteurs comme l&#039;Arabie Saoudite va plomber les marges r\u00e9alis\u00e9es sur les produits raffin\u00e9s. PFC voit les productions irakiennes s&#039;accro\u00eetre de 4,7 millions de barils\/jour avec les seules adjudications d\u00e9j\u00e0 accord\u00e9es, il estime les volumes disponibles \u00e0 3 millions de barils\/jour de plus avec celles \u00e0 venir. L&#039;Irak troisi\u00e8me producteur mondial, c&#039;est donc 5 \u00e0 8 millions de barils par jour de plus qui viendront approvisionner des march\u00e9s globalement stables ou en repli.<\/p>\n<p>&#160;Non, il n&#039;y aura pas de p\u00e9nurie dans le march\u00e9 physique du p\u00e9trole et de ses d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, surtout si les cours &quot;carry trad\u00e9s&quot; poursuivent leur rallye. Mais les derricks ne montent pas jusqu&#039;au ciel.<\/p>\n<p>Le 20 Novembre 2009<br \/>&#160;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D&#039;un c\u00f4t\u00e9 vous avez le p\u00e9trole papier grand support du Carry Trade, sport sp\u00e9culatif qui consiste \u00e0 emprunter du dollar \u00e0 la FED \u00e0 0% d&#039;int\u00e9r\u00eat et, avec l&#039;aide de ce cash, \u00e0 jouer au casino de la valorisation de tout autre actif, mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re, p\u00e9trole ou d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, actions diverses, autres monnaies, etc. Chaque fois [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":21278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les cours du p\u00e9trole h\u00e9sitent entre le casino et la dure r\u00e9alit\u00e9 d&#039;un march\u00e9 en repli - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/11\/20\/les-cours-du-petrole-hesitent-entre-le-casino-et-la-dure-realite-dun-marche-en-repli\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les cours du p\u00e9trole h\u00e9sitent entre le casino et la dure r\u00e9alit\u00e9 d&#039;un march\u00e9 en repli - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"D&#039;un c\u00f4t\u00e9 vous avez le p\u00e9trole papier grand support du Carry Trade, sport sp\u00e9culatif qui consiste \u00e0 emprunter du dollar \u00e0 la FED \u00e0 0% d&#039;int\u00e9r\u00eat et, avec l&#039;aide de ce cash, \u00e0 jouer au casino de la valorisation de tout autre actif, mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re, p\u00e9trole ou d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, actions diverses, autres monnaies, etc. Chaque fois [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a6ba2884970b-450wi.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Raymond Bonnaterre\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/11\/20\/les-cours-du-petrole-hesitent-entre-le-casino-et-la-dure-realite-dun-marche-en-repli\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/11\/20\/les-cours-du-petrole-hesitent-entre-le-casino-et-la-dure-realite-dun-marche-en-repli\/\",\"name\":\"Les cours du p\u00e9trole h\u00e9sitent entre le casino et la dure r\u00e9alit\u00e9 d'un march\u00e9 en repli - 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