{"id":631,"date":"2009-10-30T12:05:26","date_gmt":"2009-10-30T12:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/10\/30\/encore-plus-fous-que-les-cours-du-petrole-ceux-de-lessence-a-new-york\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:57:04","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:57:04","slug":"encore-plus-fous-que-les-cours-du-petrole-ceux-de-lessence-a-new-york","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/10\/30\/encore-plus-fous-que-les-cours-du-petrole-ceux-de-lessence-a-new-york\/","title":{"rendered":"Encore plus fous que les cours du p\u00e9trole: ceux de l&rsquo;essence \u00e0 New York"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;Il est bien souvent soulign\u00e9 ici combien l&#039;\u00e9tablissement des cours du p\u00e9trole ressortaient d&#039;une alchimie complexe dans laquelle les fondamentaux du March\u00e9 physique, r\u00e9gis par l&#039;offre, la demande et les stocks, n&#039;avaient que peu d&#039;impact. Mais il est un march\u00e9 aux Etats-Unis et donc dans le monde, encore plus impr\u00e9visible: c&#039;est celui de l&#039;essence. En effet un param\u00e8tre sp\u00e9culatif suppl\u00e9mentaire vient pimenter ce march\u00e9 plus \u00e9troit que celui du p\u00e9trole, c&#039;est le <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">comportement pr\u00e9sag\u00e9 des grands raffineurs<\/span>. Les r\u00e9sultats trimestriels des Compagnies P\u00e9troli\u00e8res en cours de publication montrent qu&#039;elles ont \u00e9norm\u00e9ment souffert de la conjoncture du raffinage durant ce troisi\u00e8me trimestre en raison de la faiblesse persistante de la demande en carburants et de la faiblesse des marges de raffinage, en particulier des marges sur l&#039;essence (FIG.).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a63ce5b5970b-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Cours-USA-r\u00e9cents-essence-2009-10\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20120a63ce5b5970b \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a63ce5b5970b-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&#160;Alors que les cours du gasoil suivent sagement les cours du Brent \u00e0 Londres avec un spread de 4 \u00e0 10 dollars par baril, dans le cas de l&#039;essence les choses sont beaucoup plus sportives. A quelques semaines d&#039;intervalles peuvent se succ\u00e9der de fortes anticipations de p\u00e9nuries pour un raffinage suppos\u00e9 en sous production, poussant le spread au dessus de 15 dollars le baril, suivies par des constatations de stocks pl\u00e9thoriques ramenant le spread vers des valeurs proches de z\u00e9ro, comme \u00e0 la fin du mois de Septembre. Ces variations sp\u00e9culatives amplifient celles du p\u00e9trole \u00e0 la hausse et se r\u00e9percutent sur les prix \u00e0 la pompe. <\/p>\n<p>&#160;Les raffineurs am\u00e9ricains qui avaient d\u00fb jouer l&#039;arriv\u00e9e d&#039;un ouragan dans le Golfe du Mexique et qui leur a fait faux bond, constatant la faiblesse structurelle de la demande, ne cachent pas qu&#039;ils vont r\u00e9duire leurs volumes de production pour essayer de r\u00e9tablir leurs marges. Il n&#039;est donc pas impossible de revoir les prix moyens de l&#039;essence aux Etats-Unis, repasser rapidement au dessus des 3 dollars le gallon, seuil psychologique qui d\u00e9termine les comportements d&#039;achats vers des mod\u00e8les plus \u00e9conomes en carburants. Les ventes de 4X4 avaient fortement chut\u00e9 aux USA d\u00e8s le printemps 2008, bien avant la crise, lors du passage de ce seuil des 3 dollars\/gallon par l&#039;essence (<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/le-march-us-aut.html_.png\" title=\"4X4 USA\">LIRE<\/a>). Ce prix est d&#039;ailleurs d\u00e9j\u00e0 franchi sur la C\u00f4te Ouest. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a6922689970c-pi\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Prix-pompe-essence-US-2007-2009\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20120a6922689970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a6922689970c-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&#160;Anticiper une augmentation des consommations de carburants aux Etats-Unis, sur la base d&#039;une timide reprise \u00e9conomique, semble \u00eatre une erreur profonde de compr\u00e9hension des comportements des consommateurs am\u00e9ricains.&#160;<\/p>\n<p>Le 30 Octobre 2009<br \/>&#160;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;Il est bien souvent soulign\u00e9 ici combien l&#039;\u00e9tablissement des cours du p\u00e9trole ressortaient d&#039;une alchimie complexe dans laquelle les fondamentaux du March\u00e9 physique, r\u00e9gis par l&#039;offre, la demande et les stocks, n&#039;avaient que peu d&#039;impact. Mais il est un march\u00e9 aux Etats-Unis et donc dans le monde, encore plus impr\u00e9visible: c&#039;est celui de l&#039;essence. En [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":21150,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[265],"class_list":["post-631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile","tag-gasoline-spread"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Encore plus fous que les cours du p\u00e9trole: ceux de l&#039;essence \u00e0 New York - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/10\/30\/encore-plus-fous-que-les-cours-du-petrole-ceux-de-lessence-a-new-york\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Encore plus fous que les cours du p\u00e9trole: ceux de l&#039;essence \u00e0 New York - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&#160;Il est bien souvent soulign\u00e9 ici combien l&#039;\u00e9tablissement des cours du p\u00e9trole ressortaient d&#039;une alchimie complexe dans laquelle les fondamentaux du March\u00e9 physique, r\u00e9gis par l&#039;offre, la demande et les stocks, n&#039;avaient que peu d&#039;impact. 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