{"id":638,"date":"2009-10-26T06:33:30","date_gmt":"2009-10-26T06:33:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/10\/26\/nouriel-roubini-un-nouveau-crash-est-en-cours-de-formation\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:56:26","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:56:26","slug":"nouriel-roubini-un-nouveau-crash-est-en-cours-de-formation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/10\/26\/nouriel-roubini-un-nouveau-crash-est-en-cours-de-formation\/","title":{"rendered":"Nouriel Roubini: un nouveau crash est en cours de formation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a676b0e5970c-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Roubini\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20120a676b0e5970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a676b0e5970c-150wi.jpg\" \/><\/a> &#160;Nouriel Roubini, Professeur d&#039;\u00e9conomie \u00e0 la Stern School of Business de l&#039;Universit\u00e9 de New York, doit sa c\u00e9l\u00e9brit\u00e9 dans le monde de la finance \u00e0 sa pr\u00e9vision du crash de 2008. Une interview r\u00e9cente le d\u00e9crit toujours aussi pessimiste sur la formation d&#039;une nouvelle bulle sp\u00e9culative sur le p\u00e9trole et autres commodities. Pour lui apr\u00e8s la chute vers les 30$ le baril, les cours du p\u00e9trole, sur les signes d&#039;un r\u00e9tablissement de l&#039;\u00e9conomie, auraient du remonter vers les 50 dollars. Il y a donc aujourd&#039;hui par rapport aux fondamentaux, 30$ de trop dans les cours. Pouss\u00e9 par les acteurs qui empruntent \u00e0 bon compte du dollar pour sp\u00e9culer (carry-back) le p\u00e9trole risque d&#039;atteindre les 100 $ le baril ce qui, dans le contexte \u00e9conomique tr\u00e8s fragile actuel, sera aussi dramatique qu&#039;ont \u00e9t\u00e9 les 145$ en 2008 dans une \u00e9conomie en croissance. Pour Roubini, ce sont ces prix d\u00e9lirants du p\u00e9trole en Juin 2008 qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 la principale raison de la crise \u00e9conomique. Outre les taux administr\u00e9s proches de z\u00e9ro qui permettent aux institutions financi\u00e8res de trouver le cash \u00e0 bon compte pour sp\u00e9culer, Roubini condamne la passivit\u00e9 des r\u00e9gulateurs qui croient aux &quot;laissez faire markets&quot;.<\/p>\n<p>L&#039;analyse de cet \u00e9conomiste distingu\u00e9 est bien s\u00fbr fort pertinente. Cependant, dans cette interview, il oublie d&#039;\u00e9voquer les m\u00e9canismes d&#039;adaptation de l&#039;\u00e9conomie \u00e0 une ressource \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique ch\u00e8re. On le voit aujourd&#039;hui dans l&#039;industrie automobile o\u00f9 la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique des nouveaux mod\u00e8les est devenue le principal argument de vente. Le transport a\u00e9rien am\u00e9ricain a fortement rationnalis\u00e9 son offre de vols, la consommation de gasoil par les transporteurs routiers s&#039;est elle aussi fortement r\u00e9duite. L&#039;Am\u00e9rique br\u00fble moins de p\u00e9trole, elle en br\u00fblera moins encore l&#039;an prochain.<\/p>\n<p>La vraie question est donc quel est le seuil critique des cours du brut au-del\u00e0 duquel l&#039;\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine est en p\u00e9ril? 100$ dit Roubini, par analogie avec 2008. Il n&#039;est pas impossible que ce seuil soit plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 maintenant.&#160;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.indexuniverse.com\/sections\/features\/6777-nouriel-roubini-big-crash-coming.html?Itemid=5\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Roubini\">LIRE<\/a>&#160;l&#039;interview de Roubini<\/p>\n<p>Le 26 Octobre 2009<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;Nouriel Roubini, Professeur d&#039;\u00e9conomie \u00e0 la Stern School of Business de l&#039;Universit\u00e9 de New York, doit sa c\u00e9l\u00e9brit\u00e9 dans le monde de la finance \u00e0 sa pr\u00e9vision du crash de 2008. Une interview r\u00e9cente le d\u00e9crit toujours aussi pessimiste sur la formation d&#039;une nouvelle bulle sp\u00e9culative sur le p\u00e9trole et autres commodities. Pour lui apr\u00e8s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":21126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nouriel Roubini: un nouveau crash est en cours de formation - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/10\/26\/nouriel-roubini-un-nouveau-crash-est-en-cours-de-formation\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Nouriel Roubini: un nouveau crash est en cours de formation - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&#160;Nouriel Roubini, Professeur d&#039;\u00e9conomie \u00e0 la Stern School of Business de l&#039;Universit\u00e9 de New York, doit sa c\u00e9l\u00e9brit\u00e9 dans le monde de la finance \u00e0 sa pr\u00e9vision du crash de 2008. 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