{"id":675,"date":"2009-09-27T14:36:25","date_gmt":"2009-09-27T14:36:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:53:31","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:53:31","slug":"un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/","title":{"rendered":"Un cas d&rsquo;\u00e9cole: le champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>L&#039;\u00e9tude des productions de p\u00e9trole du champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River d\u00e9couvert il ya maintenant 110 ans est un cas d&#039;\u00e9cole qui permet aux aficionados du peak oil de d\u00e9montrer la validit\u00e9 de leurs pr\u00e9dictions mais qui permet aussi \u00e0 des opinions plus progressistes de d\u00e9monter la fragilit\u00e9 de ces d\u00e9marches th\u00e9oriques, dans un monde aux technologies et aux conditions \u00e9conomiques en perp\u00e9tuelle \u00e9volution. Le cas du gisement de la Kern River est pris en exemple par Maugeri (<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/leloignement-du-peakoil-rend-toute-son-accuite-au-changement-climatique.html_.png\" title=\"Maugeri\">LIRE<\/a>) pour illustrer l&#039;\u00e9volution des technologies d&#039;exploitation p\u00e9troli\u00e8res depuis 50 ans. En 1942 on estimait alors les ressources ultimes de ce p\u00e9trole \u00e0 tr\u00e8s forte viscosit\u00e9 aux environs de 350 millions de barils. Mais \u00e0 partir de 1960 la mise en route progressive des techniques de r\u00e9cup\u00e9rations des huiles visqueuses par des injections de vapeur d&#039;eau a fait bondir les productions de quelques millions de barils par an \u00e0 plus de 45 millions de barils par an entre 1980 et 2000. En 1986 un milliard de barils avait \u00e9t\u00e9 extrait du sol depuis le tout d\u00e9but de l&#039;exploitation et l&#039;on estimait les r\u00e9serves 2P (prouv\u00e9es et probables) \u00e0 un milliard de barils suppl\u00e9mentaires. En 2007 Chevron a annonc\u00e9 que <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">2 milliards de barils avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 extraits du sol<\/span>, avec des r\u00e9serves estim\u00e9es \u00e0 600 millions de barils (FIG.I).<\/p>\n<p><p class=\"asset asset-image\"><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-pi\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Kern-River-reserves\" class=\"at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a>&#160; <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Ce formidable r\u00e9sultat montre comment durant les 50 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es les pr\u00e9visions ont pu \u00eatre fragiles et rapidement d\u00e9menties par l&#039;ing\u00e9niosit\u00e9 des hommes de terrain. Aujourd&#039;hui tout le monde est d&#039;accord sur un point: on retirera de la Kern River <strong><span>AU MOINS<\/span><\/strong> 2,5 milliards de barils. Jean Laherr\u00e8re montre avec ses courbes de productions annuelles en fonction des production cumul\u00e9es, que la droite trac\u00e9e entre 1999 et 2007 plonge vers 2,5 milliards de barils. Voila pour la photographie instantan\u00e9e prise en 2008, avec une d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion estim\u00e9e par Laherr\u00e8re \u00e0 6% par an. <\/p>\n<p>&#160;Mais, au del\u00e0 de ces approches th\u00e9oriques,&#160;il est&#160;des remarques&#160;importantes \u00e0 \u00e9noncer: depuis 2007 les cours du p\u00e9trole ont \u00e9t\u00e9 compl\u00e8tement chamboul\u00e9s, les technologies de forages horizontaux et de fracturation ont d\u00e9montr\u00e9 leur efficacit\u00e9 dans des schistes bitumineux, l&#039;injection de CO2 va \u00eatre financi\u00e8rement encourag\u00e9e par les autorit\u00e9s de l&#039;Etat de Californie et le Gouvernement F\u00e9d\u00e9ral, l&#039;utilisation de surfactants ou de micro-organismes avec un p\u00e9trole cher sera peut-\u00eatre un jour payante. En bref les technologies ne sont pas fig\u00e9es, Dieu soit lou\u00e9, une bonne fois pour toutes et les conditions \u00e9conomiques doivent encourager \u00e0 aller vers plus de sophistication technologique. Il est donc probable que les hommes de terrain, dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir, vont tout faire pour extraire de cette \u00e9ponge le maximum de produit. Alors au lieu de regarder les productions \u00e0 la louche (-6% par an!) il est int\u00e9ressant de d\u00e9celer les \u00e9ventuels progr\u00e8s observables. Sur le dernier point des productions 2008 de ce champ, publi\u00e9 par le Department of Conservation de Californie. Il est possible de d\u00e9celer entre 2002 et 2006 une d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion de 5,3% par an mais aussi l&#039;amorce \u00e0 partir de 2007 d&#039;un changement de pente (FIG.II). Tiens, ne serait-ce pas l&#039;effet de la mise en route de forages horizontaux qui permettent de mettre au plus pr\u00e8s injection de vapeur et r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration et de mieux traverser les nappes p\u00e9trolif\u00e8res. Allez donc savoir?&#160; Quoiqu&#039;il en soit quelque chose a \u00e9t\u00e9 modifi\u00e9 dans l&#039;\u00e9nonc\u00e9 du probl\u00e8me. Zut alors!&#160; <\/p>\n<p><p class=\"asset asset-image\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5a00307970b-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Kern-River-rprod-2002-2008\" class=\"at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20120a5a00307970b \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5a00307970b-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p class=\"asset asset-image\">&#160;Rejoignant la d\u00e9marche intellectuelle de Maugeri, on peut estimer qu&#039;il reste encore enfouis dans les 4 \u00e0 5 milliards de barils de p\u00e9troles de ce gisement qui devait en contenir initialement 6 \u00e0 7 milliards. En supposant que la technologie permette de retirer 50% du p\u00e9trole enfoui, ce sont donc des ressources ultimes <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">d&#039;au moins 3 milliards de barils<\/span> qui seront envisageables \u00e0 l&#039;horizon 2030.<\/p>\n<p class=\"asset asset-image\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theoildrum.com\/node\/5098\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Kern River Jean Laherr\u00e8re\">VOIR<\/a> les courbes de Jean Laherr\u00e8re sur le sujet.<\/p>\n<p class=\"asset asset-image\">Le 27 Septembre 2009<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L&#039;\u00e9tude des productions de p\u00e9trole du champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River d\u00e9couvert il ya maintenant 110 ans est un cas d&#039;\u00e9cole qui permet aux aficionados du peak oil de d\u00e9montrer la validit\u00e9 de leurs pr\u00e9dictions mais qui permet aussi \u00e0 des opinions plus progressistes de d\u00e9monter la fragilit\u00e9 de ces d\u00e9marches th\u00e9oriques, dans [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":20993,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Un cas d&#039;\u00e9cole: le champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Un cas d&#039;\u00e9cole: le champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"L&#039;\u00e9tude des productions de p\u00e9trole du champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River d\u00e9couvert il ya maintenant 110 ans est un cas d&#039;\u00e9cole qui permet aux aficionados du peak oil de d\u00e9montrer la validit\u00e9 de leurs pr\u00e9dictions mais qui permet aussi \u00e0 des opinions plus progressistes de d\u00e9monter la fragilit\u00e9 de ces d\u00e9marches th\u00e9oriques, dans [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-450wi.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Raymond Bonnaterre\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/\",\"name\":\"Un cas d'\u00e9cole: le champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River - leblogenergie.com\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-450wi.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2009-09-27T14:36:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-07-12T11:53:31+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-450wi.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-450wi.jpg\",\"width\":\"450\",\"height\":\"376\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Un cas d&rsquo;\u00e9cole: le champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\",\"name\":\"leblogenergie\",\"description\":\"Just another The Social Media Group Network site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794\",\"name\":\"Raymond Bonnaterre\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Raymond Bonnaterre\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/author\/raymond-bonnaterre\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Un cas d'\u00e9cole: le champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River - leblogenergie.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"Un cas d'\u00e9cole: le champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River - leblogenergie.com","twitter_description":"L&#039;\u00e9tude des productions de p\u00e9trole du champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River d\u00e9couvert il ya maintenant 110 ans est un cas d&#039;\u00e9cole qui permet aux aficionados du peak oil de d\u00e9montrer la validit\u00e9 de leurs pr\u00e9dictions mais qui permet aussi \u00e0 des opinions plus progressistes de d\u00e9monter la fragilit\u00e9 de ces d\u00e9marches th\u00e9oriques, dans [&hellip;]","twitter_image":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-450wi.jpg","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Raymond Bonnaterre","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/","url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/","name":"Un cas d'\u00e9cole: le champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River - leblogenergie.com","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-450wi.jpg","datePublished":"2009-09-27T14:36:25+00:00","dateModified":"2012-07-12T11:53:31+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-450wi.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f6a9bd970c-450wi.jpg","width":"450","height":"376"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/27\/un-cas-decole-le-champ-petrolier-californien-de-la-kern-river\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Accueil","item":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Un cas d&rsquo;\u00e9cole: le champ p\u00e9trolier californien de la Kern River"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website","url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/","name":"leblogenergie","description":"Just another The Social Media Group Network site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794","name":"Raymond Bonnaterre","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Raymond Bonnaterre"},"url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/author\/raymond-bonnaterre\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/341"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=675"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/675\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20996,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/675\/revisions\/20996"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20993"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}