{"id":676,"date":"2009-09-26T17:25:57","date_gmt":"2009-09-26T17:25:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/26\/leloignement-du-peakoil-rend-toute-son-accuite-au-changement-climatique\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:53:26","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:53:26","slug":"leloignement-du-peakoil-rend-toute-son-accuite-au-changement-climatique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/26\/leloignement-du-peakoil-rend-toute-son-accuite-au-changement-climatique\/","title":{"rendered":"L&rsquo;\u00e9loignement du peak-oil rend toute son acuit\u00e9 au changement climatique"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"asset asset-image\">&#160; Un certain nombre de voies raisonnables et comp\u00e9tentes s&#039;\u00e9l\u00e8vent pour challenger le caract\u00e8re imminent du peak-oil. Nous avions rendu compte ici (<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/la-notion-de-pe.html_.png\" title=\"peak-oil\">LIRE<\/a>) en 2008 des hypoth\u00e8ses de <strong><span>Richard Nehring<\/span><\/strong> qui au congr\u00e8s de l&#039;ASPO-USA \u00e0 Houston en 2007 \u00e9tait venu mettre les pieds dans le plat, en argumentant que les r\u00e9serves ultimes de p\u00e9troles avaient de bonnes chances de se situer entre 3400 et 5000 milliards de barils, avec une hypoth\u00e8se moyenne au dessus de 4000 milliards de barils, soit le double de ce qui est jusqu&#039;\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent admis par les peakistes (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspousa.org\/proceedings\/houston\/presentations\/Richard%20Nehring%20ASPO%20USA%202007.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Richard Nehring 2007\">LIRE<\/a>). <strong><span>Leonardo Maugeri<\/span><\/strong> de chez ENI vient d&#039;apporter de l&#039;eau au moulin de cette <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">vision progressiste<\/span> de la d\u00e9couverte et de l&#039;exploitation des r\u00e9serves de p\u00e9trole dans le monde. Dans un papier r\u00e9cent, intitul\u00e9 &quot;<strong><span>Squeezing more oil out of the ground<\/span><\/strong>&quot;,&#160;il estime pour sa part que pour des quantit\u00e9s globales de p\u00e9trole estim\u00e9es par les g\u00e9ologues am\u00e9ricains entre 7000 et 9000 milliards de barils, en 2030 les professionnels du p\u00e9troles avec un taux de r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 50%, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">estimeront alors les r\u00e9serves ultimes entre 4500 et 5000 milliards de barils<\/span>. Pour \u00e9tayer cette pr\u00e9diction Maugeri d\u00e9crit les progr\u00e8s accomplis dans la r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration assist\u00e9e des ressources aux moyens de divers proc\u00e9d\u00e9s tels que l&#039;injection de vapeur d&#039;eau, les forages horizontaux, les injections de CO2 ou d&#039;Azote, la combustion partielle, les proc\u00e9d\u00e9s chimiques et biologiques. Il insiste \u00e9galement sur l&#039;existence de larges territoires encore inexplor\u00e9s et sur les forages tr\u00e8s profonds du type Pre-Sal au Br\u00e9sil (FIG.) qui r\u00e9v\u00e8lent des ressources nouvelles. Pour Maugeri il reste assez de p\u00e9trole \u00e0 trouver et \u00e0 exploiter pour la totalit\u00e9 du si\u00e8cle, ce \u00e0 quoi que les hypoth\u00e8ses de Nehring conduisaient logiquement. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"asset asset-image\"><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f36bd4970c-pi\"><\/a> <\/p>\n<p class=\"asset asset-image\"><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f36f2a970c-pi\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Br\u00e9sil-pr\u00e9-sal\" class=\"at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f36f2a970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20120a5f36f2a970c-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&#160; <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>&#160;Il est donc imp\u00e9ratif de comprendre rapidement, afin d&#039;\u00e9viter tout contresens, que la rar\u00e9faction des ressources p\u00e9troli\u00e8res au rythme de consommation actuel ne se posera que dans un d\u00e9lai de l&#039;ordre du si\u00e8cle. Or, ce n&#039;est pas le cas pour le changement climatique en cours qui va s&#039;amplifier sur quelques d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir, durant lesquelles les dirigeants des Nations vont encore essentiellement faire semblant d&#039;agir, soutenus par une base populaire encore peu motiv\u00e9e et incr\u00e9dule. Le r\u00e9el probl\u00e8me de ce si\u00e8cle sera le changement climatique qui imposera logiquement de r\u00e9duire les consommations de p\u00e9trole par quatre ou cinq, ce qui repoussera de quelques d\u00e9cennies suppl\u00e9mentaires la fin des produits p\u00e9troliers naturels. Entre temps, les divers modes de transports terrestres, a\u00e9riens et maritimes se seront adapt\u00e9s \u00e0 cette rar\u00e9faction de la ressource naturelle et \u00e0 la contrainte climatique, ce que nous percevons d\u00e9j\u00e0 avec la mont\u00e9e en puissance des biocarburants et la timide apparition de la voiture \u00e9lectrique. Les carburants liquides de synth\u00e8se obtenus \u00e0 partir du gaz, de charbon et de biomasse prendront peu \u00e0 peu le relai du p\u00e9trole pour les applications comme le transport a\u00e9rien, n\u00e9cessitant un carburant liquide.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article.cfm?id=squeezing-more-oil-edit-this\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Scientific American pre-print\">LIRE<\/a> un pre-print du papier de Leonardo Maugeri paru en Avril dernier. Le papier d\u00e9finitif (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article.cfm?id=squeezing-more-oil\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Leonardo Maugeri\">LIRE<\/a>)&#160;est maintenant&#160;accessible librement sous le titre <strong><span>&quot;Another Century of Oil&quot;.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#160;Le 26 Septembre 2009<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160; Un certain nombre de voies raisonnables et comp\u00e9tentes s&#039;\u00e9l\u00e8vent pour challenger le caract\u00e8re imminent du peak-oil. Nous avions rendu compte ici (LIRE) en 2008 des hypoth\u00e8ses de Richard Nehring qui au congr\u00e8s de l&#039;ASPO-USA \u00e0 Houston en 2007 \u00e9tait venu mettre les pieds dans le plat, en argumentant que les r\u00e9serves ultimes de p\u00e9troles [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":20991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-rechauffement-climatique"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L&#039;\u00e9loignement du peak-oil rend toute son acuit\u00e9 au changement climatique - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/09\/26\/leloignement-du-peakoil-rend-toute-son-accuite-au-changement-climatique\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"L&#039;\u00e9loignement du peak-oil rend toute son acuit\u00e9 au changement climatique - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&#160; Un certain nombre de voies raisonnables et comp\u00e9tentes s&#039;\u00e9l\u00e8vent pour challenger le caract\u00e8re imminent du peak-oil. 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