{"id":793,"date":"2009-07-15T13:03:07","date_gmt":"2009-07-15T13:03:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/07\/15\/luniversite-de-berkeley-prevoit-un-futur-radieux-pour-la-voiture-electrique\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:44:55","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:44:55","slug":"luniversite-de-berkeley-prevoit-un-futur-radieux-pour-la-voiture-electrique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/07\/15\/luniversite-de-berkeley-prevoit-un-futur-radieux-pour-la-voiture-electrique\/","title":{"rendered":"L&rsquo;Universit\u00e9 de Berkeley pr\u00e9voit un futur radieux pour la voiture \u00e9lectrique"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Une \u00e9tude de l&#039;Universit\u00e9 de Californie de Berkeley qui compare les avantages respectifs de la voiture \u00e0 moteur thermique, de la voiture hybride et de la voiture 100% \u00e9lectrique conclut \u00e0 un avantage d\u00e9finitif de cette derni\u00e8re en termes de co\u00fbts de fonctionnement, en prenant comme mod\u00e8le le sch\u00e9ma de Better Place de location de batteries interchangeables dans des stations services d\u00e9di\u00e9es. <\/p>\n<p>Cette \u00e9tude part des hypoth\u00e8ses suivantes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Pour 100 miles d&#039;autonomie il faut \u00e9quiper le v\u00e9hicule \u00e9lectrique d&#039;une batterie de 20 \u00e0 22 KWh\n<li>Le prix de la batterie ira en d\u00e9croissant au cours du temps et sera de 500 $\/kWh en 2012, ce qui fait un&#160;co\u00fbt d&#039;amortissement sur 3000 cycles de charge compl\u00e8te de 6 cents\/mile.\n<li>L&#039;\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 co\u00fbtera 2 cents\/mile\n<li>L&#039;amortissement des stations de rechange des batteries reviendra \u00e0 1 \u00e0 2 cents\/mile\n<li>Les prix du p\u00e9trole selon le sc\u00e9nario de base de l&#039;EIA variera de 100$\/baril en 2015 \u00e0 120$\/baril en 2030 (FIG. courbe jaune). <\/li>\n<\/li>\n<\/li>\n<\/li>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e201157207cdcc970b-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Berkeley-2010-2030-fueling-cost2\" class=\"at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e201157207cdcc970b \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e201157207cdcc970b-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Elle en d\u00e9duit qu&#039;en 2030&#160;ce seront 63%&#160;des voitures commercialis\u00e9es aux Etats-Unis qui&#160;seront \u00e9lectriques (FIG.II)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20115711324ce970c-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Berkeley-2010-2030-ventes-flotte\" class=\"at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20115711324ce970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20115711324ce970c-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Cette \u00e9tude souffre \u00e0 mon avis d&#039;un profond biais: elle sous estime les progr\u00e8s possibles dans le domaine de l&#039;hybridation avec ou sans une certaine autonomie en mode \u00e9lectrique. La cons\u00e9quence est qu&#039;elle pr\u00e9voit une part des ventes des mod\u00e8les purement thermiques beaucoup trop importante. Il ne faut pas oublier que Toyota&#160;a d\u00e9j\u00e0 planifi\u00e9&#160;que dans dix ans,&#160;pratiquement tous ses mod\u00e8les seront hybrides. Ces progr\u00e8s se confronteront&#160;\u00e0 ceux&#160;de voitures purement \u00e9lectriques. La composition du mix entre voiture hybride et voiture \u00e9lectrique en 2030&#160;est donc difficilement pr\u00e9visible \u00e0 ce jour. Cependant cette \u00e9tude est, \u00e0 ma connaissance, la premi\u00e8re aux Etats-Unis \u00e0 afficher un tel optimisme pour le d\u00e9veloppement de la voiture \u00e9lectrique. Il y a l\u00e0 un signe d&#039;\u00e9volution profonde des mentalit\u00e9s aux Etats-Unis. Il n&#039;est pas neutre de voir cette \u00e9tude sortir d&#039;une Universit\u00e9 californienne.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/cet.berkeley.edu\/dl\/CET_Technical_Brief_Economic.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Berkeley-EV-2010-2030\">CONSULTER<\/a> cette \u00e9tude.<\/p>\n<p>Le 15 Juillet 2009<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Une \u00e9tude de l&#039;Universit\u00e9 de Californie de Berkeley qui compare les avantages respectifs de la voiture \u00e0 moteur thermique, de la voiture hybride et de la voiture 100% \u00e9lectrique conclut \u00e0 un avantage d\u00e9finitif de cette derni\u00e8re en termes de co\u00fbts de fonctionnement, en prenant comme mod\u00e8le le sch\u00e9ma de Better Place de location [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":20598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - 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