{"id":841,"date":"2009-06-20T10:33:31","date_gmt":"2009-06-20T10:33:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/06\/20\/la-robustesse-relative-du-dollar-et-la-langueur-economique-prennent-la-speculation-sur-le-petrole-pr\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:41:58","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:41:58","slug":"la-robustesse-relative-du-dollar-et-la-langueur-economique-prennent-la-speculation-sur-le-petrole-pr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/06\/20\/la-robustesse-relative-du-dollar-et-la-langueur-economique-prennent-la-speculation-sur-le-petrole-pr\/","title":{"rendered":"La robustesse relative du dollar et la langueur \u00e9conomique prennent la sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole \u00e0 contre-pied"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Ce changement de direction dans la sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole avait \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9 ici la semaine derni\u00e8re (<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/les-cours-du-petrole-avec-la-stabilisation-du-dollar-perdent-un-important-support.html_.png\" title=\"cours du p\u00e9trole\">LIRE<\/a>). La fermet\u00e9 relative du dollar par rapport aux autres monnaies rend tr\u00e8s difficile sinon impossible la poursuite du rallye haussier du mois de Mai. En effet la m\u00e9canique de&#160;couverture vis \u00e0 vis d&#039;une baisse du dollar \u00e9tait <span>le seul ressort<\/span> qui faisait cro\u00eetre les futures et les options adoss\u00e9es au p\u00e9trole et autres produits p\u00e9troliers. La fin de cette d\u00e9gradation du dollar dont&#160;la contestation comme monnaie de r\u00e9serve&#160;ne fut qu&#039;un feu de&#160;paille, rendait depuis le&#160;d\u00e9but du mois de Juin&#160;les cours du brut et de l&#039;essence sur le NYMEX totalement artificiels. Les mouvements de foule \u00e0 T\u00e9h\u00e9ran, l&#039;impossibilit\u00e9 morale pour Obama de rester neutre devant ces \u00e9v\u00e8nements, sont des facteurs de tension internationale qui ne peuvent que soutenir le dollar, seule&#160;monnaie refuge en p\u00e9riode de conflit. Alors les grandes banques qui supportaient le rallye haussier ont lanc\u00e9 leurs &quot;experts&quot; \u00e0 la rescousse pour essayer de sauver les meubles. Goldman Sachs, avec des pr\u00e9visions artificielles de&#160;cours \u00e0 fin 2009 \u00e0 85$ le&#160;baril,&#160;a fait jouer son expert le plus \u00e9cout\u00e9, Jeffrey Curry, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 forc\u00e9 de raconter du grand n&#039;importe quoi : &quot;une am\u00e9lioration des fondamentaux prendra forme d&#039;ici \u00e0 quelques mois, poussant le march\u00e9&#160;\u00e0 un manque de p\u00e9trole (deficit) &#8230;.et ceci en raison de la d\u00e9gradation continue des productions&#160;NON-OPEP&quot;. Bien entendu une telle fable dans les conditions actuelles n&#039;est pas cr\u00e9dible. Ni une hypoth\u00e9tique reprise de la demande, ni un effondrement de l&#039;offre ne sont en vue. Alors en fin de semaine les cours du WTI ont franchi, comme pr\u00e9vu, \u00e0 la&#160;baisse la barre des 70 dollars le baril (FIG., courbe bleue).&#160;Un flottement des cours entre 60 et 70$ le baril&#160;durant cette p\u00e9riode de lent r\u00e9tablissement de l&#039;activit\u00e9, d&#039;ici \u00e0 la&#160;fin de l&#039;ann\u00e9e,&#160;serait un bon compromis \u00e9conomique. Mais les cours du p\u00e9trole nous ont appris que la sp\u00e9culation ignorait le bon sens et n&#039;avait aucun sens du compromis.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e20115703d2225970c-pi\"><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/.a\/6a00d83451b18369e2011571326a20970b-pi\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Cours-USA-r\u00e9cents-2009-06\" class=\"at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e2011571326a20970b \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e2011571326a20970b-450wi.jpg\" \/><\/a> &#160;<\/p>\n<p>Le 20 Juin 2009<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Ce changement de direction dans la sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole avait \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9 ici la semaine derni\u00e8re (LIRE). La fermet\u00e9 relative du dollar par rapport aux autres monnaies rend tr\u00e8s difficile sinon impossible la poursuite du rallye haussier du mois de Mai. En effet la m\u00e9canique de&#160;couverture vis \u00e0 vis d&#039;une baisse du dollar [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":20458,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La robustesse relative du dollar et la langueur \u00e9conomique prennent la sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole \u00e0 contre-pied - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/06\/20\/la-robustesse-relative-du-dollar-et-la-langueur-economique-prennent-la-speculation-sur-le-petrole-pr\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"La robustesse relative du dollar et la langueur \u00e9conomique prennent la sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole \u00e0 contre-pied - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Ce changement de direction dans la sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole avait \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9 ici la semaine derni\u00e8re (LIRE). 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En effet la m\u00e9canique de&#160;couverture vis \u00e0 vis d&#039;une baisse du dollar [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e2011571326a20970b-450wi.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Raymond Bonnaterre\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/06\/20\/la-robustesse-relative-du-dollar-et-la-langueur-economique-prennent-la-speculation-sur-le-petrole-pr\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/06\/20\/la-robustesse-relative-du-dollar-et-la-langueur-economique-prennent-la-speculation-sur-le-petrole-pr\/\",\"name\":\"La robustesse relative du dollar et la langueur \u00e9conomique prennent la sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole \u00e0 contre-pied - 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