{"id":86,"date":"2011-10-02T12:02:54","date_gmt":"2011-10-02T12:02:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/10\/02\/lavenir-du-raffinage-en-europe-apparait-bien-compromis\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:36:23","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:36:23","slug":"lavenir-du-raffinage-en-europe-apparait-bien-compromis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/10\/02\/lavenir-du-raffinage-en-europe-apparait-bien-compromis\/","title":{"rendered":"L’avenir du raffinage en Europe appara\u00eet bien compromis"},"content":{"rendered":"

 La baisse europ\u00e9enne de la demande en produits p\u00e9troliers, les \u00e9blouissantes marges de raffinage am\u00e9ricaines r\u00e9sultant d'un WTI vendu \u00e0 prix brad\u00e9, la volont\u00e9 des pays producteurs de p\u00e9trole (Moyen-Orient, Russie) de mieux valoriser leurs ressources en s'int\u00e9grant vers l'aval, la d\u00e9mocratie d'opinion pr\u00e9valante devant donner le change \u00e0 la mystique \u00e9cologique ambiante en taxant les \u00e9missions des raffineries encore actives, incitent \u00e0 imaginer un avenir morose pour l'industrie du raffinage en Europe. L'European Petroleum Industry Association (Europia) vient de publier un document d\u00e9taill\u00e9 sur ce sujet qui pr\u00e9voit une baisse des consommations de p\u00e9trole de 11% (seulement) en Europe entre 2009 et 2030 et une capacit\u00e9 de raffinage qui si elle restait d'ici l\u00e0 en l'\u00e9tat, pr\u00e9senterait alors une surcapacit\u00e9 de production de 25%. En termes clairs il faudra selon ce bureau de lobbying professionnel fermer d'ici \u00e0 cette date, au bas mot 25 raffineries des 96 unit\u00e9s existantes en 2010 (FIG.).<\/p>\n

\"Europia<\/a><\/p>\n

Remarque: une timide baisse des consommations de 11% entre 2009 et 2030 ne repr\u00e9sente que 0,6% de baisse de consommation annuelle. Pour l'instant l'EIA entre 2009 et 2012 envisage une baisse des consommations europ\u00e9ennes de 0,8% par an. Le param\u00e8tre du premier ordre qui d\u00e9terminera cette vitesse de d\u00e9croissance sera bien s\u00fbr le prix \u00e0 la pompe des carburants qui minorera la demande et sponsorisera l'offre de biocarburants. On peut imaginer des gouvernements europ\u00e9ens \u00e0 la recherche de recettes de poches taxer gaillardement les carburants dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir. Quand aux cours du brut \u00e0 Londres nul ne sait quels sommets ils auront atteint dans 20 ans. Une baisse des consommations de p\u00e9trole en Europe autour des 20% d'ici l\u00e0 par rapport \u00e0 celles de 2009 n'est donc pas impossible.<\/p>\n

LIRE l'\u00e9tude d'Europia sur le sujet<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Remarque pour les peak-oilers angoiss\u00e9s: la vue des r\u00e9serves ultimes figurant dans ce rapport<\/p>\n

\"Europia<\/a>
et je trouve le petit rectangle vert d'EOR \u00e0 l'aide d'injections de CO2 vraiment trop \u00e9troit. Il faudrait aussi l'actualiser avec les nouvelles connaissances sur les gaz de schistes. Satanas!<\/p>\n

Allez pour les ulc\u00e9r\u00e9s par tant de mauvaise foi insupportable, une vision plus r\u00e9cente, celle de Mosconi de Total en 2011…encore un si\u00e8cle de p\u00e9trole ou plus…hi!hi!<\/p>\n

\"R\u00e9serves-2011\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Et la Mer du Nord britannique apr\u00e8s avoir produit plus de 40 milliards de barils \u00e9quivalents p\u00e9trole de liquides et de gaz, bande encore (FIG.)! Le plateau continental assure encore la fourniture de 87% du p\u00e9trole et 61% du gaz britannique…formidable avantage \u00e9conomique par rapport \u00e0 la France. La vitesse de d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion de ces extractions va d\u00e9pendre des investissements consentis et donc du prix du baril de p\u00e9trole…et des taxes britanniques. Mais il en restera encore dans 30 ou 40 ans.<\/p>\n

\"R\u00e9serves<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Le 2 Octobre 2011<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

 La baisse europ\u00e9enne de la demande en produits p\u00e9troliers, les \u00e9blouissantes marges de raffinage am\u00e9ricaines r\u00e9sultant d'un WTI vendu \u00e0 prix brad\u00e9, la volont\u00e9 des pays producteurs de p\u00e9trole (Moyen-Orient, Russie) de mieux valoriser leurs ressources en s'int\u00e9grant vers l'aval, la d\u00e9mocratie d'opinion pr\u00e9valante devant donner le change \u00e0 la mystique \u00e9cologique ambiante en taxant […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":23014,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-86","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"\nL'avenir du raffinage en Europe appara\u00eet bien compromis - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/10\/02\/lavenir-du-raffinage-en-europe-apparait-bien-compromis\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"L'avenir du raffinage en Europe appara\u00eet bien compromis - 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