{"id":908,"date":"2009-05-09T09:10:02","date_gmt":"2009-05-09T09:10:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/05\/09\/les-achats-de-couverture-devant-la-faiblesse-du-dollar-font-bondir-les-commodities\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:36:31","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:36:31","slug":"les-achats-de-couverture-devant-la-faiblesse-du-dollar-font-bondir-les-commodities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/05\/09\/les-achats-de-couverture-devant-la-faiblesse-du-dollar-font-bondir-les-commodities\/","title":{"rendered":"Les achats de couverture devant la faiblesse du dollar font bondir les commodities"},"content":{"rendered":"

                     E<\/strong>t si la politique \u00e9conomique de l'Administration Obama n'\u00e9tait qu'un processus de fuite en avant articul\u00e9 autour de fortes d\u00e9penses budg\u00e9taires, de faiblesse du dollar entra\u00eenant la reprise de l'inflation et la mont\u00e9e des taux longs? Si cette hypoth\u00e8se est exacte, la remont\u00e9e des cours des commodities (mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et \u00e9nergie) n'en est qu'\u00e0 ses d\u00e9buts.<\/p>\n

                     Un des marqueurs les plus nets des mouvements sp\u00e9culatifs sur l'\u00e9nergie aux Etats-Unis est le cours du gaz naturel au Henry Hub dans le Golfe du Mexique et cot\u00e9 sur le NYMEX. Entre le 27 Avril et le 8 Mai le cours du million de BTU a gagn\u00e9 plus d'un dollar pour atteindre 4.31 $\/MMBTU (FIG.I) alors que la demande en gaz aux Etats-Unis est au plus bas et les stocks au plus haut. La raison de cette tr\u00e8s forte variabilit\u00e9: la faiblesse du dollar. Entre le 20 avril et le 8 Mai l'euro \u00e0 1.36 $ s'est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 de 7 cents.<\/p>\n

\"Cours-gaz-nymex-2009-05\"<\/a> <\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n

                 La remont\u00e9e des cours de l'\u00e9nergie se concr\u00e9tise \u00e9galement sur le p\u00e9trole WTI tir\u00e9 par les cours de l'essence qui flambent. Le baril d'essence \u00e0 13 dollars au dessus de celui du brut tire tous les cours p\u00e9troliers. A  72 $\/baril les cours de l'essence sont \u00e0 8$ de plus que ceux du gasoil, au m\u00e9pris des donn\u00e9es \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques de base (FIG.II).<\/p>\n

\"Cours-essence-gasoil-2009-05\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

                 La corr\u00e9lation entre cours de l'euro en dollars et cours du p\u00e9trole WTI est toujours aussi bonne. Un p\u00e9trole \u00e0 45 euros le baril est \u00e0 port\u00e9e de main (FIG. III).<\/p>\n

\"Cours-USA-r\u00e9cents-p\u00e9trole-2009-05\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

                 Ces quelques donn\u00e9es confort\u00e9es par la mont\u00e9e des cours de l'\u00e9thanol, du ma\u00efs, du bl\u00e9, etc., remettent en \u00e9vidence cette propension des milieux financiers \u00e0 se couvrir sur les commodities d'une faiblesse du dollar annonc\u00e9e, entra\u00eenant ainsi une demande de papier sans liaison avec la demande physique de ces produits. Pour qu'un mouvement sp\u00e9culatif se  maintienne il faut qu'il s'appuie sur des pseudo-\u00e9vidences. Il en est une puissante en ce moment: la sortie de crise \u00e9conomique annonc\u00e9e<\/span>. En Chine tout d'abord puis aux Etats-Unis ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes reli\u00e9s aux puissants plans de relance de chacun des deux pays.<\/p>\n

               Pour mesurer le chemin \u00e0 parcourir, il suffit d'examiner le Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index qui \u00e0 243, \u00e0 21% au dessus du plus bas de 200 du printemps a encore de fortes progressions devant lui pour aller rejoindre un indice sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 300 qui n'aurait rien de scandaleux.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"CRB-Index-2009-05\"<\/a>  <\/p>\n

Le 9 Mai 2009<\/p>\n

–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                     Et si la politique \u00e9conomique de l'Administration Obama n'\u00e9tait qu'un processus de fuite en avant articul\u00e9 autour de fortes d\u00e9penses budg\u00e9taires, de faiblesse du dollar entra\u00eenant la reprise de l'inflation et la mont\u00e9e des taux longs? Si cette hypoth\u00e8se est exacte, la remont\u00e9e des cours des commodities (mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et \u00e9nergie) n'en est qu'\u00e0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":20211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nLes achats de couverture devant la faiblesse du dollar font bondir les commodities - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/05\/09\/les-achats-de-couverture-devant-la-faiblesse-du-dollar-font-bondir-les-commodities\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les achats de couverture devant la faiblesse du dollar font bondir les commodities - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                     Et si la politique \u00e9conomique de l'Administration Obama n'\u00e9tait qu'un processus de fuite en avant articul\u00e9 autour de fortes d\u00e9penses budg\u00e9taires, de faiblesse du dollar entra\u00eenant la reprise de l'inflation et la mont\u00e9e des taux longs? 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