{"id":919,"date":"2009-05-02T09:26:37","date_gmt":"2009-05-02T09:26:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/05\/02\/les-cours-de-lessence-a-new-york-tirent-ceux-du-petrole-au-dessus-des-40-euros-le-baril\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:35:31","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:35:31","slug":"les-cours-de-lessence-a-new-york-tirent-ceux-du-petrole-au-dessus-des-40-euros-le-baril","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/05\/02\/les-cours-de-lessence-a-new-york-tirent-ceux-du-petrole-au-dessus-des-40-euros-le-baril\/","title":{"rendered":"Les cours de l’essence \u00e0 New York tirent ceux du p\u00e9trole au dessus des 40 euros le baril"},"content":{"rendered":"

                 L<\/strong>a baisse des stocks hebdomadaires d'essence aux Etats-Unis, les faibles productions des raffineries, la confirmation par l'Energy Information Administration (EIA) que les consommations de carburant au mois de F\u00e9vrier ont \u00e9t\u00e9 soutenues, le sentiment confus d'une timide reprise, la faiblesse du dollar voila le cocktail id\u00e9al pour faire remonter les cours du p\u00e9trole WTI \u00e0 New-York qui \u00e0 53,2 dollars le baril vient de franchir une barre importante: celle des 40 euros\/baril.<\/p>\n

Mais revenons en d\u00e9tail sur ces divers param\u00e8tres:<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"Conso-mensuelle-gasoline-US-2009-02\"<\/a>  <\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n

1) Les stocks hebdomadaires d'essence \u00e0 212 millions de barils, le dernier Vendredi du mois d'Avril, ont perdu 5 millions de barils sur la base d'une faible activit\u00e9 des raffineries (83%), d'importations limit\u00e9es (0,8 millions de barils\/jour) et d'une consommation qui se maintient au dessus de 9 millions de barils\/jour.<\/p>\n

2) Cette bonne tenue des consommations d'essence est confirm\u00e9e par les statistiques mensuelles de l'EIA qui montrent que conform\u00e9ment aux statistiques ant\u00e9rieures, les consommations du mois de F\u00e9vrier se sont accrues par rapport \u00e0 celles de Janvier (FIG., barres jaunes). Il est donc probable qu'avec l'arriv\u00e9e des beaux jours, la consommation am\u00e9ricaine en essence va cro\u00eetre. Ceci serait conforme avec la stabilisation du trafic routier qui semble se dessiner. Les cours de l'essence en forte croissance hier (FIG.II, courbe rouge), ont tir\u00e9 ceux du WTI<\/p>\n

\"Cours-BRENT-WTI-2009-05\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

3) L'euro sur la base de mauvaises statistiques allemandes \u00e9tait descendu \u00e0 1,29 dollars le 20 Avril, depuis il est repass\u00e9 au dessus des 1.32 dollars. C'est un param\u00e8tre cl\u00e9 de hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole. Entre le 20 Avril et le premier Mai le p\u00e9trole s'est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 de 7.5 dollars par baril<\/span>! La corr\u00e9lation entre cours de l'euro en dollars et cours du p\u00e9trole est forte (Coefficient de corr\u00e9lation de 0,82). Le baril a donc franchi le premier Mai la barre des 40 euros (FIG.III).<\/p>\n

\"Prix-40-euros-2009-04\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

                 Acheter du papier adoss\u00e9 aux cours du p\u00e9trole ou, de fa\u00e7on plus audacieuse, \u00e0 ceux du gaz naturel aux Etats-Unis, appara\u00eet aux yeux de beaucoup de financiers comme un bon moyen de se prot\u00e9ger contre une d\u00e9valuation du dollar et d'accompagner un d\u00e9but de reprise \u00e9conomique am\u00e9ricaine. Il n'en faut pas plus pour que les cours du p\u00e9trole et du gaz naturel repartent \u00e0 la hausse.<\/p>\n

                Remarque: les consommations de p\u00e9trole aux Etats-Unis ont baiss\u00e9 de plus d'un million de barils\/jour au mois de F\u00e9vrier par rapport \u00e0 il y a un an (-1.076 millions de barils). Mais ce sont essentiellement les consommations de gaz liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9s, de gasoil et de k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne qui expliquent cette baisse (FIG IV).<\/p>\n

\"Baisse-conso-US-2009-02\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

Le 2 Mai 2009.<\/p>\n

–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                 La baisse des stocks hebdomadaires d'essence aux Etats-Unis, les faibles productions des raffineries, la confirmation par l'Energy Information Administration (EIA) que les consommations de carburant au mois de F\u00e9vrier ont \u00e9t\u00e9 soutenues, le sentiment confus d'une timide reprise, la faiblesse du dollar voila le cocktail id\u00e9al pour faire remonter les cours du p\u00e9trole WTI […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":20167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nLes cours de l'essence \u00e0 New York tirent ceux du p\u00e9trole au dessus des 40 euros le baril - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/05\/02\/les-cours-de-lessence-a-new-york-tirent-ceux-du-petrole-au-dessus-des-40-euros-le-baril\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les cours de l'essence \u00e0 New York tirent ceux du p\u00e9trole au dessus des 40 euros le baril - 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